When Mother Nature takes center stage, even the most skilled golfers are at her mercy. And that’s exactly what happened during the final rounds of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, where the forecast became the defining factor in who would rise to the top. But here’s where it gets controversial: did the early starters truly have an unfair advantage, or did the late groups simply fail to adapt? Let’s dive in.
The third round at Pebble Beach was a tale of two courses. Players teeing off early, like 54-hole leader Akshay Bhatia, enjoyed calm conditions, with Bhatia firing six birdies in his first seven holes to reach 2-under through nine. However, as the winds picked up—gusting up to 23 mph along the coastline—the course transformed. Bhatia’s back nine saw him struggle to a 2-over finish, settling for a 4-under round and a two-shot lead heading into Sunday. And this is the part most people miss: the dramatic shift in conditions didn’t just test skill—it tested resilience.
Collin Morikawa, meanwhile, capitalized on the calmer morning weather, carding a stunning 10-under 62 while hitting all 18 greens in regulation. This marked only the third time in his PGA TOUR career he’d achieved such a feat. Now just two shots back, Morikawa is poised to claim his first victory since the 2023 ZOZO Championship. But can he hold his nerve in the face of Sunday’s forecast?
Speaking of which, Round 4 is shaping up to be a weather-driven battle. Tee times have been moved up, with players going off in threesomes from both tees to outrun worsening conditions. Early forecasts predict winds between 6 and 12 mph with a 25% chance of rain, but by noon, the probability of precipitation jumps to 35%, with sustained winds of 10-20 mph and gusts nearing 30 mph. Here’s the bold question: Will the late starters be able to compete, or will the morning wave dominate the leaderboard?
Pebble Beach has played slightly under par this week, but that could change dramatically as the winds intensify. If conditions deteriorate as expected, the course may trend closer to even par or even over par for the late groups. Round scoring markets have hovered between 68.5 and 69.5, but if Sunday’s afternoon groups face a tougher course, betting on overs could prove valuable. For instance, if the course plays half a stroke over par, the field average could rise to 71, creating a significant margin.
The wave advantage also opens up placement opportunities. Early starters will face winds of 6-12 mph, while late groups battle sustained winds nearing 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Such disparities often lead to dramatic shifts on the leaderboard as the day progresses.
Two key statistical categories stand out for Sunday: performance in extreme wind and temperature-adjusted play. Over the last 36 rounds in heavy wind, Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Shane Lowry top the Strokes Gained: Total rankings. Meanwhile, with temperatures projected in the mid-50s, players like Scheffler, McIlroy, and Nick Taylor have historically thrived in similar conditions.
Shane Lowry (+220 FanDuel) is one golfer whose profile aligns perfectly with Sunday’s challenges. A runner-up at Pebble Beach last season, Lowry gained +4.9 strokes putting and enters the final round at 11 under, just one shot outside the top 10. His game, characterized by a lower ball flight and precise control around the greens, is tailor-made for windy conditions. Over the last 36 rounds in extreme wind, he ranks third in this field, gaining +1.63 strokes per round. After a 5-under 67 in Round 3, Lowry is a strong bet to crack the top 10.
Collin Morikawa to Win (+490) is another intriguing play. While Bhatia struggles in windy conditions (ranking outside the top 40 in his last 36 rounds), Morikawa excels, ranking fifth and gaining +1.42 strokes per round. His ball-striking has been exceptional this week, gaining over +3.5 strokes, though his putting remains a question mark. If he can stay neutral on the greens—as he did in Round 3—his approach play gives him a real shot at victory.
Finally, in the Round 4 Three Ball market, Russell Henley over Sami Valimaki and Tony Finau (-104) stands out. Henley ranks inside the top 20 in windy conditions, gaining 0.5 strokes total and 1.05 strokes putting through three rounds. Valimaki and Finau, on the other hand, have historically struggled in heavy wind, making Henley’s price a solid option.
So, what do you think? Did the early starters truly have an unfair advantage, or is it all part of the game? Will Morikawa clinch the win, or will an underdog rise to the challenge? Let us know in the comments—this is one debate that’s sure to spark differing opinions!
